Gears of War: E-Day Sold Modestly, but Game Pass Is the Real Story

Gears of War: E-Day has only been out for a few days, but early analyst estimates already suggest its sales story is less about raw copies and more about how Microsoft packaged the game. Alinea Analytics' Rhys Elliott estimates that about 230,000 copies have sold so far, with roughly 168,000 on Steam and about 62,000 across Xbox consoles and PC.

Those headline numbers miss a lot. Elliott says about 1.7 million people played E-Day through Game Pass instead of buying it, and he argues that subscription access cannibalized most of the sales that would otherwise have happened. But 722,000 of those players then paid $30 for the Premium upgrade, which gave them early access about five days before launch along with extra content. By Elliott's estimates, Xbox brings in roughly $26 million of the $37 million in revenue, while Steam accounts for about $11 million. Counting the upgrades, close to 950,000 people paid something for the game. He calls all of these figures "soft" and argues that the $70 standard edition is effectively dead on Xbox.

Circana's Mat Piscatella offers a counterpoint. Game Pass subscribers already pay a monthly fee, and not everyone who played E-Day through the service would have bought it outright. The cannibalization is real, but it is probably smaller than the raw numbers imply.

The bigger debate is about Game Pass itself. Elliott notes that the service brought in nearly $5 billion in the latest fiscal year but is no longer growing, which he says has left Xbox at a crossroads. Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has described Game Pass as one of the big bets from the Phil Spencer and Sarah Bond era that did not pay off. Microsoft has since stopped including new releases, including Call of Duty, on Game Pass at launch.

The PS5 question also hangs over the release. A PS5 version of E-Day was reportedly canceled at the last minute. Microsoft has denied that, and Aaron Greenberg has said the game is not a timed exclusive, but Microsoft said similar things about Starfield before it arrived on PlayStation. Elliott argues that exclusives no longer move hardware and calls E-Day and Clockwork Revolution "sacrificial lambs for hearts-and-minds, not economics." The Coalition's Mike Crump says the game gives the franchise a "great foundation" and that any sequel could be made faster, though the studio has no other announced projects.